Avoid Stockouts, Not Sales: Stay In Stock When It Matters Most

1. The High Stakes of Q4 Inventory Management

Q4 is every brand’s most significant growth moment and its most significant test.

According to Deloitte’s 2025 Holiday Retail Forecast, U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to rise between 2.9% and 3.4% year over year, with eCommerce leading the charge, growing an estimated 7%–9% during the 2025–2026 season. Digital channels will once again be the growth engine driving overall retail gains.

But opportunity comes with risk. With heightened economic uncertainty and a downtrend in consumer spending, retailers face pressure to capture every conversion and protect their share of wallet. Inventory missteps, slow pivots, or missed insights can quickly translate into lost revenue — and, worse, lost customers.

In this blog, we’ll break down actionable strategies to forecast smarter, tighten cross-team functional alignment, and build agile backup strategies.

2. Reading Q4 Demand Signals from Prime Day Performance

Think of Prime Day as your Q4 crystal ball.

The event’s results reveal which products, campaigns, and audiences will fuel your holiday growth. Post-Prime Day, analyze these signals:

• Conversion Rates & Ad Efficiency: Identify which ad clicks converted to sales. Optimize around top-performing keywords and creatives to improve ROI heading into Q4.
• Top-Selling SKUs & Surprise Wins: Track breakout products and unexpected hits. Dig into why they performed, emerging trends or audience shifts could guide your next moves.
• Inventory Speed & Restock Constraints: How quickly did SKUs sell out? Did restock limits restrict revenue? Use this data to adjust forecasts and negotiate more flexible stock thresholds.

📊 Pro Tip: Update Q4 forecasts using Prime Day results.

• Reassess top sellers and surprises.
• Refine ad spend predictions based on conversion lift.
• Adjust inventory for high-velocity SKUs.
• Factor in competitor behavior and emerging trends.

Want deeper insights? Check out our 2025 Fall Prime Report for brand benchmarks, ad trends, and consumer shifts shaping Q4.

3. Using Amazon Data to Forecast Smarter

Your Amazon data holds the blueprint for a smarter Q4 forecast. Start by mastering these core metrics:

• Sell-Through Rate: Shows how efficiently inventory is moving.
  • High rate: Strong demand, but watch for stockouts.
  • Low rate: Pricing, listing appeal, or marketing issues.
  • Action: Monitor weekly to balance stock levels and sales velocity.
• Restock Limits: Amazon’s limits directly cap your potential. Exceeding them can stall growth.
  • Action: Optimize your Inventory Performance Index (IPI) score and negotiate limit increases based on proven sales performance.
• Velocity: Past sales patterns are your demand compass.
  • Consistent Q4 strength? Expect similar demand.
  • But don’t ignore shifts, competitor pricing, macro trends, and new product launches, all of which impact velocity.
  • Action: Layer historical data with real-time insights for the most accurate forecast.

✅ Smart forecasting formula:
Velocity trends + Sell-through rate + Restock constraints = A proactive inventory plan that scales profitably.

4. Cross-Team Coordination: Preventing Overselling

Q4 success isn’t just about numbers; it’s about alignment. Operations, finance, and advertising teams must move in sync to avoid overselling and stockouts.

• Operations: Drives supply chain visibility, manages lead times, and ensures POs match forecasted demand.
• Finance: Balances cash flow with purchasing schedules to keep liquidity healthy while staying in stock.
• Advertising: Paces ad spend in lockstep with inventory levels. Prevents ad waste and protects ranking by keeping sales steady across SKUs.

Cross-functional coordination ensures your growth engine stays fueled, without breaking under demand pressure.

5. Backup Plans: FBM as a Safety Net

Even the best forecasts can’t predict everything. FBM (Fulfilled by Merchant) is your safeguard when FBA stockouts hit.

• Preparation: Ready your warehouse or 3PL with accurate inventory and rapid FBM activation processes.
• Continuity: FBM maintains sales velocity, rank, and cash flow during FBA gaps.
• Execution: Keep pricing consistent, shipping fast, and fulfillment reliable to maintain trust and performance.

FBM isn’t a backup plan; it’s a business continuity strategy for Q4 resilience.

6. Conclusion: Play Offense, Not Defense

Staying in stock isn’t just an operational necessity; it’s a growth strategy that directly drives revenue and momentum. 

The brands that plan now are the ones that win big in Q4.

Need help forecasting and building a sell-through strategy that keeps you in stock and on top? Straight Up Growth’s experts are here to help. 

With our proprietary inventory tracking tool and a dedicated brand strategy team monitoring your performance, you’ll have everything you need to stay ahead of demand and maximize your Q4 success. 

Schedule a free audit today!

Q+A

“How do I know if I’m over-ordering versus being properly stocked?”
→ Use velocity-based forecasting and aging inventory reports to compare sell-through rates against projected Q4 lift. Analyzing these reports allows you to identify potential overstock early and adjust ordering, preventing cash from being tied up in slow-moving inventory.

“What’s the right balance between staying in stock and managing cash flow?”
→ Build purchase orders in waves — secure your top 20% SKUs early and delay secondary SKUs until you validate demand signals. Prioritize best-sellers to maintain stock and reduce overstocking of less popular items. Confirm demand for secondary SKUs for informed purchasing and better cash flow management.

“Can I use ad performance data to guide inventory planning?”
→ Absolutely. Monitor your TACoS trends and conversion lift to identify SKUs where ads are efficiently driving sustainable velocity. Effective ad performance, increased sales, and a healthy TACoS indicate a need for increased inventory for those SKUs. This data-driven approach optimizes inventory planning based on real-time ad performance.

“How can I avoid stockouts caused by Amazon restock limits?”
→ Maintain diversified fulfillment: FBM or 3PL backup, proactive case requests, and staggered replenishments to stay under limits. Using FBM or a 3PL maintains sales continuity despite FBA limitations. Requesting higher limits and staggering shipments also aids inventory management within Amazon's framework.

“Should I slow down ads if I’m close to going out of stock?”
→ Yes, but strategically. Shift ad spend toward in-stock hero SKUs or use defensive bidding to maintain visibility without burning spend. Rather than stopping ad campaigns, promote in-stock products. Defensive bidding maintains search presence without overspending on low-stock items.

“If I do run out, how can I recover quickly once restocked?”
→ Restart PPC with a short burst campaign, update listing relevancy, and consider coupon incentives to regain momentum. A concentrated PPC campaign, optimized product listings with relevant keywords, and coupons can quickly increase visibility, drive sales, and restore previous sales velocity.

“How far out should I finalize my Q4 inventory plan?”
→ Ideally by early October — giving 6–8 weeks buffer for production, shipping, and Amazon check-in delays. This timeline accounts for potential delays in production, shipping, and Amazon's receiving processes, ensuring inventory is ready for the peak shopping season. Planning provides a buffer to address unforeseen issues and maximize Q4 sales.